Saturday, 5 November 2016

Portfolio Reflections (05 Nov 16)


Frasers Cpt
Top position and have no plans to pare down. Would love to add more if price crashes. Though now is cheap imo, it is already about 20% of my portfolio. Hence, only a bigger price discount would justify taking the risk of over-concentration.

M1
Lots of doomsayers in the market. 52w-low now. I expect M1 to yield at least 5% at current price (2.06). Would not divest (or cut loss), the company is a cash generating machine and I do not see a risk of it going insolvent. There is currently no upside catalyst for M1 but downside risk looms. IMDA has postponed the announcement of qualified 4th telco twice (latest on 28 Oct). It could mean anything. There is still a possibility of status quo due to unsatisfactory business proposals by new applicants or lack of funding. That will be a bonus to M1 investors.

ARA Asset Mgt
ARA is interesting at the moment. Trading was halted on Thursday, 3 Nov 16, pending release of announcement. It remains halted at time of writing. The market is expecting a privatisation offer by a consortium led by CEO John Lim, first reported by the Wall Street Journal on Friday afternoon. It would be a good chance to realize profit on the true intrinsic value of ARA. I mean ARA is truly a gem on SGX but SGX investors did not send the price higher. I am estimating an offer of at least 1.70 (including dividends) but hoping John Lim surprizes the faithful investors with a better offer.

OCBC
Boring, just keep it in cold storage and collecting dividends.

ComfortDelgro
Latest addition to portfolio. Decent dividends and higher dividends expected with the bus asset like model; solid track record of creating profit growth, resilient sector. No clear reason for the recent price slide at the moment. It could be suggesting a bad quarter to be reported next Friday.

CRCT
The only reit counter in portfolio. High dividend yield. A proxy to china's growing shopping market. Fed december rate hike looms, will look out for price crashes to add more.

800 Super
Recently added. Low risk investment.

Q&M Dental
Awaiting restructuring and listing of entities in China, expecting fireworks.

CEI
Bought after a price rally. It has since settle at 8% lower than my entry. Expects dividend yield to maintain, supporting the price.

Hock Lian Seng
Low risk net net company with long history and strong portfolio of completed projects. I would love to add more in the event that price crashes for no reason.

Declout
Betting on special dividends.

DBS
Outlook similar to OCBC. Taking small bites using Dollar Cost Averaging strategy.

Katrina
On hindsight, was a bad investment. Will not cut loss, since the group is expected to pay dividends. Just going to cold storage this. However, if price falls below IPO price, will consider averaging down.

Other updates:
Divested Singpost and GLP at profit recently.
Divested CCT at profit in Sep.
Fifo Noble resulted in a loss.

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